GSLA REPORTS

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EDITOR'S NOTE: THIS SECTION CONTAINS (1) GSLA SPECIAL PROJECT INFORMATION; (2) GSLA GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE COLIFORM MONTORING REPORTS WITH DATA PRESENTED FOR MULTIPLE YEARS TO ALLOW EASIER MULTI-YEAR COMPARISONS; (3) HUDSON RIVER-BLACK RIVER AND RELATED REPORTS; (4) GSLA WATER LEVEL COMMITTEE REPORTS

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(1) GSLA SPECIAL PROJECT INFORMATION

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Community Fleet Invitation to SAIL: The Great Sacandaga Lake Association is proud to announce that it has donated to the Great Sacandaga Lake Community Fleet.  The Community Fleet 'exists to plan, promote and stage sailing events on the Great Sacandaga Lake.  Any sailing vessel is welcome to join any of the over 15 events held during the 2016 season.  We will be holding Fleet events, both racing and social, on Saturdays and selected weekdays.  The goal is to help people understand sailboat racing, improve their sailing skills, and develop new sailing friends on the Lake'.  The calendar of sailing events can be found at SAIL CALENDAR.  Questions can be directed to devinvanzandt@gmail.com

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(2) GSLA GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE COLIFORM MONITORING REPORTS

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GSLA Editor Note:  Each of the two 2014  interim reports and the two 2015 interim reports contained an identical project description, action level statement and suggestions for interpretation.  For this reason, the project description and other introductory notes are presented once.  The results of  both samplings are contained in the combined 2014-2015 Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Report table at the end of the report.  All reports are available upon request to the GSLA.

Summary of Findings (Comments - 17-Aug-15) "The day was clear and calm with water temperatures in the range of 77 - 81 degrees F (25 - 27 degrees C).  I noticed some blue green algae growth near the Mayfield Spillway and at Woods Hollow Marina where the Kenyetto drains into the Great Sacandaga Lake.  All bacterial samples, however, fell within contact recreation standards even at sites actively being used by bathers and boaters."  (Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist)

Summary of Findings (Comments - 07-20-15) "All samples fell within contact recreation standards even sites actively being used by bathers and boaters." (Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist)

Summary of Findings (Comments - 07-Jul-14): "All samples fell within contact recreation standards, but the Conklingville Dam access point did produce 630 fecal coliform colonies per 100 ml of sample.  There were a number of ducks at this location at the time of sampling.  I plan on collecting a second sample there on Monday, July 14th to verify the sample result.  I have attached the updated first interim report for 2014.  The resample at the Conklingville Dam access point declined from 630 fecal coliform colonies per 100 ml of sample on July 7th to 47 colonies on July 14th.  There were a number of ducks at this location at the time of the first sampling, a potential source for coliform bacteria."  (Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist)

Summary of Findings (Comments - 04-Aug-14): " I have attached the second interim report for 2014, with samples collected on August 4, 2014.  The day was clear and calm with water temperatures in the range of 77 – 81o F (25 – 27o C).  All samples fell within contact recreation standards, including a sample from the Conklingville Dam access point which had generated an elevated fecal coliform result back in early July.  A resample the next week produced fewer than 50 fecal coliform colonies per 100 ml of sample.  There were a number of ducks at this location at the time of sampling in July which may account for the one elevated fecal coliform result." (Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist) 


GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE
COLIFORM MONITORING PROGRAM – 2014-2015
REPORTS

prepared for
The Great Sacandaga Lake Association
By
Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist
&
Charles W. Boylen, Associate Director Darrin Fresh Water Institute
5060 Lakeshore Drive Bolton Landing, NY 12814
2014/2015
Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program

The Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program (GSLCMP) for 2014-2015 is designed to quantify the
bacterial water quality at selected locations in Great Sacandaga Lake for contact recreation
purposes.  Public bathing facilities, recreational areas and runoff locations will be a primary
focus.  Approximately 12 shoreline locations will be sampled during July and an additional 12
locations sampled in August.  The time interval coincides with the period of maximum population
density and intensity of recreational use. Two primary measurements will be made for each sample:
Total Coliform (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) Bacteria.  These bacteria serve as indicators of the
presence of animal or human waste. The presence of elevated levels of these bacteria indicate
potentially disease-causing protozoa, bacteria and other microorganisms may be present in the
water.  Follow-up sampling will be conducted within 48 hours for any public beach samples exceeding
contact recreation standards (Table 1) at the discretion of the lake association. Sampling sites
will be chosen in consultation with the Great Sacandaga Lake Association (GSLA). DFWI personnel
will attempt to assist the local regulatory authorities with location of bacterial sources, working
closely with the county and local authorities to locate and correct sources of contamination. 
Follow-up investigations by the NYS Department of Health, NYS Department of Environmental
Conservation and county and local government personnel are encouraged at sites with elevated fecal
coliform levels.

Action Levels of the Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program

In order to respond effectively to contamination problems detected during the Great Sacandaga Lake
Coliform Monitoring Program, the following actions will occur for bathing beach samples:

1.   If 200 or more fecal coliform bacteria per 100 milliliters are reported, the site will be
resampled during the next sampling cycle.

2.   If 400 or more fecal coliform bacteria per 100 milliliters are reported, the site will be
resampled within 24 to 48 hours. The data for both samples will be reported to the GSLAC.  They
will accept responsibility for contacting the appropriate regulatory agencies.

Follow-up samples to locate specific shoreline problems are not within the guidelines of this
program and will be the responsibility of the appropriate regulatory agencies. The Darrin Fresh
Water Institute will provide technical assistance upon request, however the cost of additional
sampling and analysis must be covered by the local, county or state agency responsible for water
quality complaints.

SUGGESTIONS FOR INTERPRETATION OF COLIFORM DATA

New York State Department of Health has determined maximum allowable bacterial levels for contact
recreation (swimming, wading, etc.).  A table of these bacterial concentrations is included.  When
these maximum bacterial levels are exceeded, the New York State Department of Health is empowered
to close the location to bathing until the problem or problems are corrected.  These levels are
used by the Darrin Fresh Water Institute to determine appropriate responses to various bacterial
concentrations found during sampling. A table of these responses is included.
Interpretation of data to determine and locate sources of contamination (human or other
warm-blooded animal) requires more than just current bacterial levels. A knowledge of past history
of the site, weather, geology of the area, drainage patterns, and some information on human
activities in the area are also useful. To differentiate between human waste and that produced by
other warm-blooded animals, it is sometimes helpful to refer to the ratio of fecal coliform to
Enterococcus bacteria (FC/EC).  An FC/EC ratio of 4 or greater is generally considered indicative
of contamination of human origin.  Enterococcus (EC) Bacteria abundance will be determined for any
resample locations.
 
Table 1.  New York State coliform bacteria standards for bathing beaches.

Maximum Allowable Levels of Coliform Bacteria in Waters Used for Contact Recreation (NYS Dept. of
Health)

Bacterial Test                   Max. 5 Sample Mean               Max. Single Result                                                                                                        Total   Coliform                     2400 per 100 mls
Fecal Coliform                       200 per 100 mls                     1000 per 100 mls
Enterococcus                         33 per 100 mls                        61 per 100 mls

Definitions
TC – Total Coliform Bacteria FC – Fecal Coliform Bacteria EC – Enterococcus Bacteria
FC/EC – Ratio of Fecal Coliform to Enterococcus Bacteria TNTC – Too Numerous to Count
CONF – Confluent growth of target bacteria MAT – Confluent growth of non-target bacteria
? – High background, referring to non-target growth of bacteria interfering with counts of target
bacteria
lt – Less than
LA – Laboratory accident preventing enumeration of bacteria


2014 GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE COLIFORM MONITORING PROGRAM

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              SITE                                               
        DATE       TC/100ml               FC/100ml                 FS/100ml          FC/FS                  NOTES          
Town of Broadalbin
Broadalbin Fishing Access7-Jul-143821No bathers, clear
17-Aug-15260Bathers, slightly turbid, 77 degrees F
NYS DEC Boat Launch Broadalbin04-Aug-14124?12Clear, cool, boaters
20-Jul-1510021Boaters, warm, 81
degrees F
Town of Day
Allentown Creek7-Jul-14          610200Clear, moderate flow
20-Jul-15330138Low flow, cool, algae
Saratoga County Boat Launch7-Jul-14          104Clear, 1 boater
04-Aug-1426?2Clear, cool
20-Jul-15194Clear, boats, 75 degrees F
17-Aug-1576Choppy, slightly turbid, 75 degrees F
Town of Day Beach 7-Jul-14          641 bather, clear
   04-Aug-1412?1t 1Clear, cool, no bathers
20-Jul-1541Clear, no bathers, 75 degrees F
17-Aug-1533Bather, clear, calm, 75 degrees F
Sand Creek17-Aug-15506Low flow, clear, 63 degrees F
Town of Edinburg
Ponderosa Pines Beach7-Jul-1423148No bathers, clear
04-Aug-1451?36Clear, cool, ducks
20-Jul-15161No bathers, clear, 77 degrees F
17-Aug-15It 10It 1No bathers, choppy, 77 degrees F
Town of Luzerne
Conklingville Dam7-Jul-141110?630Clear, ducks
14-Jul-147647Clear, calm
04-Aug-14163018Clear, cool, bathers
17-Aug-15808Bathers, clear, calm, 77 degrees F
Town of Mayfield
McMurray Boat Livery04-Aug-14127?5Clear, cool
17-Aug-15705Clear, calm, 81 degrees F
Vandenburg Point Swim Area7-Jul-1460?27No bathers, clear
20-Jul-1530?39Bathers, warm, 81 degrees F
Woods Hollow Marina7-Jul-1426067No boaters, clear
20-Jul-1560?100Turbid, floating debris, 81 degrees F
17-Aug-15906Turbid, algae, 77 degrees F
Cranberry Cove Marina04-Aug-1463?28Clear, cool, bathers
20-Jul-1510028Clear, calm, 81 degrees F
Mayfield Lake Spillway17-Aug-152020Low flow, foam, turbid, 77 degrees F
Mayfield Town Beach04-Aug-1481?10Clear, cool
Town of Northampton
Little Lake Outlet04-Aug-1443?7Clear, cool
Northville Little Lake20-Jul-15105Fishermen, clear, 81 degrees F
Northville Town Beach7-Jul-144521Clear, no bathers, calm
04-Aug-1467?3Clear, cool
20-Jul-151712No bathers, warm, 81 degrees F
17-Aug-15104No bathers, calm, 77 degrees F
NYS DEC Northampton Beach7-Jul-14166No bathers, clear, gulls
04-Aug-1499?7Clear, cool, gulls
20-Jul-154411No bathers, warm, 81 degrees F
17-Aug-15103Bathers, calm, gulls, 77 degrees F
Sacandaga Beach/Sport Island Pub7-Jul-143319Clear, no bathers
04-Aug-1489?11Clear, cool
20-Jul-1532?10Bathers, warm, 81 degrees F
17-Aug-15407No bathers, calm, 77 degrees F
Town of Providence
Providence Town Beach7-Jul-142314Clear, no bathers
04-Aug-14148?1Clear, cool, no bathers
20-Jul-153010Bathers, warm, 81 degrees F
17-Aug-153018No bathers, clear, calm, 81 degrees F

                                                             

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GSLA Editor Note:  Each of the two 2013  interim reports contained an identical project description, action level statement and suggestions for interpretation.  For this reason, the project description and other introductory notes are presented once.  The results of  both samplings are contained in the combined 2013 Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Report table at the end of the report.  Each report is available upon request to the GSLA.

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS:  "Public bathing facilities, recreational areas and runoff locations were the primary focus of bacterial testing in 2013.  Bacterial levels were low at nearly all sites and within acceptable limits of recreational use based on NYS DOH Standards."  (Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist)

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GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE
COLIFORM MONITORING PROGRAM – 2013
COMBINED RESULTS: FIRST AND SECOND INTERIM REPORTS

(WATER SAMPLING: JULY 15 AND AUGUST 19, 2013)
prepared for


The Great Sacandaga Lake Association
By
Lawrence W. Eichler, Research Scientist
&
Charles W. Boylen, Associate Director Darrin Fresh Water Institute
5060 Lakeshore Drive Bolton Landing, NY 12814

         _______________________________________________________________________________________

Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program

 The Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program (GSLCMP) for 2013 is designed to quantify the bacterial water quality at selected locations in Great Sacandaga Lake for contact recreation purposes.  Public bathing facilities, recreational areas and runoff locations will be a primary focus.  Approximately 12 shoreline locations will be sampled during July and an additional 12 locations sampled in August.  The time interval coincides with the period of maximum population density and intensity of recreational use. Two primary measurements will be made for each sample: Total Coliform (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) Bacteria.  These bacteria serve as indicators of the presence of animal or human waste. The presence of elevated levels of these bacteria indicate potentially disease-causing protozoa, bacteria and other microorganisms may be present in the water.  Follow-up sampling will be conducted within 48 hours for any samples exceeding contact recreation standards (Table 1) at the discretion of the lake association. Should adjacent public swimming areas exist, they will be sampled along with any follow-up sampling efforts. Sampling sites will be chosen in consultation with the Great Sacandaga Lake Association (GSLA). DFWI personnel will  attempt to assist the local regulatory authorities with location of bacterial sources, working closely with the county and local authorities to locate and correct sources of contamination. Follow-up investigations by the NYS Department of Health, NYS Department of Environmental Conservation and county and local government personnel are encouraged at sites with elevated fecal coliform levels.

Action Levels of the Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program

In order to respond effectively to contamination problems detected during the Great Sacandaga Lake Coliform Monitoring Program, the following actions will occur:

1. If 200 or more fecal coliform bacteria per 100 milliliters are reported, the site will be resampled during the next sampling cycle.
2. If 400 or more fecal coliform bacteria per 100 milliliters are reported, the site will be resampled within 24 to 48 hours. The data for both samples will be reported to the GSLAC. They will accept responsibility for contacting the appropriate regulatory agencies.

Follow-up samples to locate specific shoreline problems are not within the guidelines of this program and will be the responsibility of the appropriate regulatory agencies. The Darrin Fresh Water Institute will provide technical assistance upon request, however the cost of additional sampling and analysis must be covered by the local, county or state agency responsible for water quality complaints.

 SUGGESTIONS FOR INTERPRETATION OF COLIFORM DATA

New York State Department of Health has determined maximum allowable bacterial levels for contact recreation (swimming, wading, etc.).  A table of these bacterial concentrations is included.  When these maximum bacterial levels are exceeded, the New York State Department of Health is empowered to close the location to bathing until the problem or problems are corrected.  These levels are used by the Darrin Fresh Water Institute to determine appropriate responses to various bacterial concentrations found during sampling. A table of these responses is included.

Interpretation of data to determine and locate sources of contamination (human or other warm-blooded animal) requires more than just current bacterial levels. A knowledge of past history of the site, weather, geology of the area, drainage patterns, and some information on human activities in the area are also useful. To differentiate between human waste and that produced by other warm-blooded animals, it is sometimes helpful to refer to the ratio of fecal coliform to Enterococcus bacteria (FC/EC).  An FC/EC ratio of 4 or greater is generally considered indicative of contamination of human origin.  Enterococcus (EC) Bacteria abundance will be determined for any resample locations.

Table 1.  New York State coliform bacteria standards for bathing beaches.
Maximum Allowable Levels of Coliform Bacteria in Waters Used for Contact

Recreation (NYS Dept. of Health)
Bacterial Test Max. 5 Sample Mean Max. Single Result
Total Coliform 2400 per 100 mls  
Fecal Coliform 200 per 100 mls 1000 per 100 mls
Enterococcus 33 per 100 mls 61 per 100 mls

 Definitions

TC – Total Coliform Bacteria
FC – Fecal Coliform Bacteria EC – Enterococcus Bacteria
FC/EC – Ratio of Fecal Coliform to Enterococcus Bacteria TNTC – Too Numerous to Count
CONF – Confluent growth of target bacteria MAT – Confluent growth of non-target bacteria
? – High background, referring to non-target growth of bacteria interfering with counts of target bacteria
lt – Less than
LA – Laboratory accident preventing enumeration of bacteria

2013 GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE COLIFORM MONITORING PROGRAM

              Site                    Date                     TC/100ml               FC/100ml                      NOTES          

Town Of Broadalbin
Broadalbin Fishing Access
Broadalbin Fishing Access



15-Jul-13

19-Aug-13



56?

9



30

7



Bathers, clear, 27°C
Clear, cool, bathers
Town of Day
Allentown Creek

15-Jul-13

900

180

Clear, 18°C, Moderate flow
Saratoga Boat Launch15-Jul-13152Clear, high water
Town of Day Beach

Town of Day Beach
15-Jul-13

19-Aug-13
17?

11
14

1
No bathers, high water, clear
Calm, clear, no bathers
Town of Edinburg
Ponderosa Pines Beach

Ponderosa Pines Beach

15-Jul-13

1-Aug-13

80?

17

20?

3

No bathers, clear, 26°C
Choppy, clear, no bathers
Town of Mayfield  Kennyetto Creek @ Route 30

Kennyetto Creek @ Route 30*   


15-Jul-13


19-Aug-13


1200


460
FS/100 ml (230)


380


290
FC/FS (1.3)


Brown, Moderate flow, clear, 21°C

Low flow, cool, clear
Mayfield Town Beach  

Mayfield Town Beach                           

15-Jul-13

19-Aug-13

120

8

80

2

No bathers, 26°C, slightly turbid
 Clear, calm, 1 bather
Vandenburg Point Swim Area

Vandenburg Point Swim Area            

15-Jul-13


19-Aug-13

52


20

13?


14

Bathers, clear, 27°C

Calm, clear, no bathers
Woods Hollow Marina
19-Aug-13

2

It 1

Cool, calm
Town of Northampton
Little Lake Outlet


Northville Town Beach 

Northville Town Beach                        


19-Aug-13



15-Jul-13


19-Aug-13


17



28


1?


9



12


It 1


Calm, clear, no bathers


High water, no bathers, calm, 25°C
Closed, no bathers, clear
NYS DEC Northampton Beach

Northampton Beach

15-Jul-13

19-Aug-13

10

17

3

9

No bathers, high water, 26°C
Calm, clear, bathers
Sacandaga Beach/Sport Island Pub 

Sacandaga Beach/Sport Island Pub  


15-Jul-13



19-Aug-13


80?



11


6



3


Clear, bathers, 26°C


Clear, calm, bathers
Sacandaga Park Brook19-Aug-1313658Very low flow, clear
Town of Providence
Providence Town Beach

Providence Town Beach


15-Jul-13

19-Aug-13


25

3


2

1


Clear, no bathers, 26°C
Clear, calm, no bathers

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(2) HUDSON RIVER-BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT REPORTS AND COMMENTS

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Supreme Court, Appellate Division Findings: The court released the decisions on the litigation brought against the Regulating District by the New York State Electric and Gas Corporation and the Northern Electric Power Corporation.  In both decisions, the court supported the Regulating District and dismissed the requests for the refund of assessments requested by the hydropower concerns.  The text of the decisions can be found at New York State Electric and at Northern Electric

Results of the NYS Audit Report on the Hudson River-Black River Regulating District: The Sacandaga Express provided a review of the audit findings which follow by clicking SACANDAGA EXPRESS.  The findings address the overall operation of the Regulating District and include recommendations to the District to increase revenues by considering increases in assessments to statutory beneficiaries and to lake permit holders.

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(3) GSLA WATER LEVEL COMMITTEE REPORTS

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GSLA WATER LEVEL COMMITTEE REPORT – AUGUST 30, 2015 (A Report Prepared by Dave Smail, GSLA Vice-President and Chair of the GSLA Water Level Committee)
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EDITOR’S NOTE: This report was prepared in response to a member’s inquiry concerning the drop in water level in the Great Sacandaga during the month of August, 2015.  The GSLA recognizes that the low water level is a concern and has decided to reformat the original response into report form and share the product with our membership.  This report was shared exclusively with GSLA members on August 31, 2015 through the GSLA e-burst system and issued on September 8, 2015 to non-members.  The report may be seen by linking to AUGUST 30, 2015 WATER LEVEL REPORT.

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GSLA Water Level Committee Report - June 17, 2015:  The following report was issued by Dave Smail, GSLA Vice-President and the Chair of the GSLA Water Level Committee advising the lake community of potentially high waters on the Great Sacandaga as a result of increased precipitation.

Permit holders on the Great Sacandaga Lake should prepare for potential high waters on the lake during the next week. 

At the end of May, the Great Sacandaga Lake watershed had an 8.5 inch deficit in precipitation, resulting in a lake level 3.5 feet below the expected level for June 1st.  However, rain during the first two weeks of June have eliminated much of the deficit and the current lake level is within a half of a foot of the Target Elevation for mid-June, leaving only 3.5 feet of additional storage in the lake.

In the past two weeks, some docks have shifted, broken moorings and floated free on the lake.   Current inflow into the lake is four times the historical average for this date with the lake level expected to continue to increase.

Hurricane Bill, which made landfall in Texas on Tuesday, may bring additional precipitation to our area.  The hurricane is expected to leave large amounts of rain in Texas, Oklahoma, and the Ozarks.  Although it is too early to predict the path of the storm, one should consider the possibility that it may be coming to the Northeast.  With current saturated ground conditions any large storm could potentially increase the lake level by several feet. 

Because Hurricane Bill may impact the Great Sacandaga Lake early next week, it is recommended that individuals in the lake community, especially those who are only at the lake on the weekend, secure boats, docks, and other items in anticipation of the storm and a potential high lake level.

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Where Did All the Water Go?
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A Report by Dave Smail, Vice-President of the Great Sacandaga Lake Association and Chair of the GSLA Lake Level Committee.
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 Many of us returned to the Great Sacandaga Lake this year to find the lake level four feet below what we came to expect for this time of year and asked what happened to all of the water!  The simple answer … the water never reached the lake!  The first five months of 2015 left the watershed with an 8.5 inch deficit in precipitation.  The dry spring impacted large sections of Upstate New York.

How is the Water Level Controlled on the Great Sacandaga Lake?
Many lake residents and recreational boaters believe that the Hudson River Black River Regulating District releases water from the Great Sacandaga Lake to control the lake level and keep the level at or near a pre-determined ‘Target Elevation’.  This is only partially true because the district operates the Conklingville Dam under a Federal Energy Regulating Commission license.  The license agreement requires the Regulating District to release water from the lake to maintain both a daily average and an instantaneous flow on the Sacandaga River below the Stewarts Bridge Dam and on the Hudson River below where the Sacandaga River and Hudson River meet.  Therefore, the two factors:  (1) lake level on the Great Sacandaga Lake and (2) the required daily average and instantaneous water flow on the two Rivers (Sacandaga River below the Stewarts Bridge Dam and on the Hudson River below the confluence) shape the Regulating District’s daily water decisions.

The requirements recognize historical precipitation and establish daily average minimums and maximum requirements based upon current water level on the lake. The Regulating District attempts to maintain the lake level near the ‘Target Elevation’ by maximizing the release when the level is above the target lake level and minimizes the release when it is below the target lake level.

Why is the Great Sacandaga Lake Lower than Usual?
Why is the Great Sacandaga Lake 3.5 feet below the 768 feet water level we expected on June 1st?  Due to the lack of precipitation in March and April, the low flow on the Hudson River above the confluence of the Sacandaga and Hudson Rivers required the Regulating District to make releases that by late March resulted in a lake level which was a foot and one half below the expected 749 foot. 

This year’s winter was very cold and the snow pack within the watershed was near historical average when we approached March.  Most everyone, including the District, expected warm weather and rain in April. With the ground frozen most of the rain and snow melt within the watershed ends up in the lake and historically increases the lake level at rate of one foot per day during April.  At the beginning of April, the Regulating District believed that they were well positioned with the lake level at 747.5 feet.  If the snow melt were accompanied with four inches of rain over the month the lake level would have been over the spillway!  However, April of 2015 did not bring rain, and with warm weather, the snow melted and most of the water never reached the lake because of the distance traveled within the watershed, water evaporation, absorption into ground water or absorption by vegetation prior to reaching the lake.  To put things in prospective, a storm that dropped one inch of rain on the watershed when the ground is frozen or saturated would increase the lake level close to two feet over the next few days.  If the storm were to arrive during a drought in the growing season the observed increase in lake level may be less than a foot.

The good news is that at the beginning of June we received rain for several days and the lake level increased by more than a foot and on June 5th, the water level is 765.5 feet.  The flow into the lake is currently twice the normal historical average and if the drought has been broken and we receive historical precipitation, the lake will slowly return to the 768 feet expected for this time of the season.